Prominent Stock Analyst Warns of Potential 20% Selloff in Twitter Stock Price if Takeover Offer is Refused

Brent Thill, a Jeffries tech analyst, is putting a bold statement into the mix of wild news. Most of this wild news we are referencing is in relation to, of course, Elon Musk potentially buying all of Twitter and potentially taking the company private and in a different direction regarding censorship and free speech.

Thill is putting his neck out there and making a bold statement about what could happen to the value of Twitter shares if the board doesn’t accept either Musk’s or possibly some other competing bid.

A competing offer hasn’t officially been landed however, yet there is a lot of speculation nevertheless, as to who else may want to offer more for Twitter shares.

Thill’s statement as reported by Yahoo Finance is:

“If Twitter rejects Musk’s offer we see the possibility for another investor to support the stock should it sell off. We believe that, if there is a 20%+ sell off on a rejected bid, Twitter would definitely present value to a strategic investor. In our view, this could be a positive outcome given Twitter would likely prefer a consortium of investors rather than be controlled by a single large owner.”

Thill’s analyst rating on Twitter stock is ”hold” and $48 for the price target. At that particular price target, Musk’s offer of $54.20 per share doesn’t seem unreasonable. In our view, this rings particularly true today as the tech sector largely sold off by large margins ahead of a stock trading holiday weekend.

If the broader tech sector drops in value as a whole, the offer standing from Musk to Twitter shareholders becomes more tempting by defacto. This is in our opinion and not to be taken as any sort of expert financial analysis or advice.

Thill also added, according to the same source:

“We are skeptical that Twitter will accept Elon Musk’s $54.20 offer, which implies 21x FY23 EBITDA and 15% upside from current levels. While we viewed Musk’s involvement as a positive for the stock, we believe Twitter is likely looking for an offer of $60+, which is still only 23x FY23 EBITDA (vs. low 30x level in early ’21). Given regulatory scrutiny, we don’t expect an offer from another large Internet player.”