Democrats today received bad news one week before the midterm elections as the Cook Political Report dealt them a knockout blow.
The election analysis website move 10 House races in the GOP’s favor today, with none going in the other direction, something that hasn’t happened since April.
In that time, the publication has often favored Republicans with their movement of seats, but this time it was a complete sweep.
Three of the seats were moved from “lean D” to “toss up” while 5 were moved from “likely D” to “lean D,” signaling a pending red wave.
Election expert Dave Wasserman reported in a tweet, “NEW @CookPolitical House rating changes: 10 more blue state districts move in Republicans’ direction, including #CA47 Rep. Katie Porter (D) from Lean D to Toss Up”
NEW @CookPolitical House rating changes: 10 more blue state districts move in Republicans’ direction, including #CA47 Rep. Katie Porter (D) from Lean D to Toss Up. Full analysis: https://t.co/ldqos2Pi8J pic.twitter.com/rD40MW6vdw
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 1, 2022
Prior to that, Wasserman had noted in a quote tweet, “A recurring theme this cycle: Dems drew maps in IL, NV, NM, OR, PA that spread out their voters to maximize their prospects of keeping the House – but by doing so they also increased the number of seats vulnerable to a strong GOP wave.”
Sean Tende with Real Clear Politics had pointed out in the original three-part tweet, “On PA-12, it isn’t just that the R challenger has the same name as the retiring D incumbent, though that is part of it. The map that the Supreme Court of PA selected pushed the 12th district into heavily red precincts of Westmoreland Co.”
“(it previously was entirely within Alleghany Co.). This freed up Democratic precincts to place in the 17th, keeping it competitive. Don’t get me wrong: The 12th is still Democratic, but Biden + 20 (D+8) as opposed to Biden + 30(D+13).”
“That’s still a heavily Biden district, but it puts it in a range where voter confusion combined with an unfavorable environment for Democrats could make it surprisingly close.”
A recurring theme this cycle: Dems drew maps in IL, NV, NM, OR, PA that spread out their voters to maximize their prospects of keeping the House – but by doing so they also increased the number of seats vulnerable to a strong GOP wave. https://t.co/BBcGWB3NpK
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 1, 2022
After the shift, Wasserman shared an updated chart of the publication’s House race ratings and said in another tweet, “NEW @CookPolitical House ratings: 212 seats at least Lean R, 188 seats at least Lean D, 35 Toss Ups. Our outlook remains a GOP gain of 12-25 seats.”
NEW @CookPolitical House ratings: 212 seats at least Lean R, 188 seats at least Lean D, 35 Toss Ups. Our outlook remains a GOP gain of 12-25 seats. Full analysis: https://t.co/ldqos2Pi8J pic.twitter.com/9HGhOabasA
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 1, 2022
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